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To
Fly or Not to Fly?
Aviation Weather Forecasting Makes
America's Skies Safer
To fly or not to fly? That is the
question pilots and air traffic controllers answer thousands
of times each month. In 2000, a record number of commercial
flights crisscrossed the American skies, and the travel industry
expects the numbers to increase. The latest weather forecast
is crucial in making the right decisions about whether to fly,
or land. NOAA's National Weather Service uses a combination of high-technology and skilled meteorologists
to develop aviation weather forecasts for each flight in the
United States, and for two-thirds of air traffic around the
globe.
Aviation Weather Forecasting Behind-the-Scenes
The NWS issues a total average of nearly 4,000 aviation weather
forecasts each day. The 121 NWS weather forecast offices issue
close to 2,500 aviation weather forecasts to 537 airports around
the nation every day. The local offices also issue nearly 1,300
en route flight forecasts a day. Meteorologists at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC)
in Kansas City, Mo., and the Alaska Aviation
Weather Unit (AAWU) in Anchorage
issue a combined 275 weather products - forecasts, warnings and
advisories daily.
Additionally, Center Weather Service Unit meteorologists, positioned
at 21 FAA Air Route Traffic Control Centers across the country,
provide in-person guidance to air traffic controllers about
threatening weather conditions as they happen.
In Anchorage, the AAWU's forecasts cover Alaska, parts of the
North Pacific Ocean, Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean, extending
to the North Pole and a large area of northeast Russia. Elliott
Barske, the Meteorologist-in-Charge at the AAWU, says "with
so much of the region's economy dependent on flying, it is crucial
that decision makers have aviation weather forecasts they can
trust."
Creating Aviation Weather Forecasts
To generate aviation weather forecasts, meteorologists at the
AWC and AAWU use images from satellites circling the globe,
improved model data from NOAA's National
Centers for Environmental Prediction,
real-time weather data from Doppler radar and
Automated Surface Observation System units at America's airports. ASOS provides minute-by-minute
updates on vital weather information, including cloud heights,
wind speed and precipitation. That information is available
to forecasters around the clock.
Aviation Weather History At A Glance
After the Wright Brothers' historic flights of 1903, the nation
was awestruck by planes soaring through the air. Years later,
on Dec. 1, 1918, the National Weather Service, then called the
U.S. Weather Bureau, issued its first aviation weather forecast
for the Aerial Mail Service route from New York to Chicago. On
May 20, 1926, Congress passed the Air Commerce Act, which included
legislation directing the Weather Bureau to "furnish weather reports,
forecasts, warnings...to promote the safety and efficiency of
air navigation in the United States."
Mark Andrews, chief of the NWS Aviation Weather Services Branch
says, "Back then, the early forecasters had little experience
with aviation weather phenomena of thunderstorms, fog, low clouds,
icing and turbulence that impact today's flights."
Andrews adds that advanced computer technology, combined with
the skill and experience of meteorologists, have helped improve
the speed, accuracy and quality of aviation forecasts, which
are critical for flight safety. "Air traffic controllers and
pilots are receiving more information today than ever before,
which helps them make smarter decisions about whether to fly
in marginal weather."
New Technology, Techniques Drive Aviation Forecasts
The NWS uses a broad range of new technology, including Internet
chat rooms, that result in faster, more accurate aviation forecasts.
After a two-year test, the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product,
created by the AWC, became operational on April 1, 2000, in time
for the spring/summer thunderstorm season. The CCFP, an interactive
forecast technique that allows meteorologists from the AWC, FAA
and the airlines to agree on a weather forecast in an Internet
chat room, provides extended outlooks of up to six hours and aims
to reduce weather-related flight delays and cancellations. The
NWS also is using more technology to develop new products that
would continue its momentum of improving aviation weather forecasts
and strengthening its commitment to meeting the needs of the aviation
community.
In 2000, the AWC introduced the "Aviation Test Bed," giving
the center the capability to test new forecast products from
the research community. "From this research, we expect greater
skills in forecasting turbulence, thunderstorms and icing,"
says Jim Henderson, the AWC's deputy director.
On The Horizon
While the NWS and FAA continue to fine-tune the CCFP, another
aviation weather forecast tool in development is the National
Convective Weather Forecast. Once it is ready, this forecast product
will take the current radar tracks of storms and project where
they will be one hour later. It will be automatically updated
every five minutes and give forecasters more focused and precise
weather data to make better aviation forecasts.
-- John Leslie, john.leslie@noaa.gov.
Web Sites
NOAA's National
Weather Service
NOAA's Aviation Weather
Center
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
NOAA's National
Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA's
Aviation Weather Links
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