"Normal" Hurricane Season
No Reason for Complacency
NOAA's
top hurricane experts said the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season
is likely to have normal levels of activity, bringing fewer
storms than during the past three years. However, a normal
season is no cause for complacency. Fifty people died in
1960 when Hurricane Donna swiped Florida, lashed every state
from South Carolina to New York, crossed Long Island, and
then raced into New England, all during a below-normal season.
When Hurricane Andrew, the costliest hurricane on record,
struck Florida in 1992, another below-normal season, damages
totaled over $25 billion.
A normal season typically means that five to seven tropical
storms will reach hurricane strength and that two or three
will be major hurricanes, packing winds greater than 110
mph. NOAA's experts advised Atlantic and Gulf states to
be prepared for storms, high winds and flooding throughout
the season which begins June 1 and continues through November
30.
"Although we expect an average level of activity this season,
that is no cause to become complacent. With the possibility
of five to seven hurricanes, residents in hurricane prone
areas can't afford to let their guard down," said Scott
Gudes, NOAA's acting administrator. "Just one storm can
dramatically change your life."
He was speaking at a press conference marking the kickoff
of a nationwide Hurricane Awareness Week campaign
led by NOAA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and
storm-vulnerable states to increase preparedness and safety
among residents.
Scott
Gudes at Washington, DC
press conference
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NOAA's National Hurricane
Center in Miami also spearheaded a tour along vulnerable
coastal areas to give people living within 50 miles of the
Gulf and Atlantic coasts a heads-up about hazards and safety
precautions. In Florence, South Carolina,
for instance, meteorologists Tom Matheson and Reid Hawkins
spoke to about 600 fifth graders while meteorologist-in-charge
Richard Anthony toured damage-prone
areas with a county emergency preparedness manager.
They could cite continuing improvements in technology and
research that enabled forecasters to produce the 2001 outlook.
As Scott Gudes said at press conference,
"Better
data from NOAA's weather satellites, better models, the
latest supercomputers and an improved ability to monitor
and understand global climate patterns are helping to create
better long-term forecasts."
(Click
here to view the Washington, D.C., news conference
on May 21, 2001. Click
here to view the question and answer period
following the formal statements.)
(Click
here to view a B-Roll video of clips of the
various NOAA research aircraft that fly into hurricanes
and for animation of what it's like to fly into
hurricanes.)
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Retired Air Force Brig. General Jack Kelly, director of
NOAA's National Weather Service, explained that forecasters
will monitor climate patterns, especially those leading
up to the August - October peak period of the season. He
said that, "one of the most valuable forecast tools is the
information gathered by NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve
personnel who fly directly into these storms." At the press
conference, speakers were flanked by NOAA's WP-3D, G-IV
and the Air Force's WC-130-H hurricane hunter/research aircraft.
Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center,
highlighted the dangers of inland flooding. In 1999, Hurricane
Floyd brought record flooding to the East Coast. Fifty of
the 56 deaths during Hurricane Floyd were a direct result
of inland flooding. That kind of threat remains with each
approaching storm. Storm surge from hurricanes bring the
greatest potential for loss of life. When an evacuation
order is given, residents should treat it as a life or death
matter. Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's National Hurricane
Center, speaking at press conference.
Studies show that high accuracy data from NOAA and Air Force
Reserve aircraft have improved the forecast accuracy by
about 25 percent. Aircrews in these storms also have detected
sudden, dangerous changes in hurricane intensity and movement,
which are currently very difficult to detect by satellite
alone.
Hurricane Hunters are a vital link in the hurricane surveillance
and warning network, alerting vulnerable populations.
Hurricane Awareness Week featured a new Web site highlighting
five topics-one for each day of the week. Each is vital
to saving lives and property.
NOAA forecasters will issue an updated hurricane outlook
in August.
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